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UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti warns that the upcoming U.S. elections will significantly impact global markets, regardless of the winner. Both candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, are expected to exacerbate the U.S. budget deficit, currently at $1.8 trillion, while market volatility is anticipated as investors react to the electoral outcome. As markets prepare for the November 5 polls, there are concerns about inflation and trade protectionism, with a potential increase in public debt globally. UBS aims to support clients through this uncertainty, leveraging its strong capital position.
UBS Group reported a strong Q3 net profit of $1.4 billion, nearly double analysts' expectations, driven by robust loan revenue and cost reductions. However, the bank cautioned about potential market volatility due to the upcoming U.S. elections and a decline in interest income. The Wealth Management division saw pre-tax profits rise, while the Investment Banking unit exceeded estimates with a pre-tax profit of approximately $405 million.
Kamala Harris is intensifying her attacks on Donald Trump’s authoritarian rhetoric, but some Democrats in Michigan worry this focus may alienate voters more concerned about the economy. Activists argue that emphasizing Trump’s threats to democracy distracts from Harris’ strengths, particularly on abortion rights and economic issues. As concerns grow about her messaging, Harris is shifting back to economic topics while continuing to highlight the risks posed by a potential second Trump term.
UBS Group AG reported a third-quarter net income of $1.4 billion, significantly surpassing analysts' expectations of $783.3 million, driven by strong lending income and cost reductions. However, the bank cautioned about potential market volatility due to the upcoming US elections and ongoing uncertainty regarding global economic conditions.CEO Sergio Ermotti noted that market strategies may shift depending on the election outcome, particularly if Kamala Harris wins. UBS is also navigating the integration of Credit Suisse and facing potential capital requirement increases of up to $25 billion following a Swiss political review of the crisis.
European leaders are bracing for increased American protectionism regardless of the U.S. election outcome, with both candidates likely to adopt "America first" policies. Concerns are rising over potential trade conflicts, especially if Trump returns to power, as he has threatened tariffs that could strain European exports and weaken the euro. EU officials are preparing for both scenarios while emphasizing the need for enhanced competitiveness and economic resilience.
China suggested that a Trump presidency could lead to a disregard for Taiwan, emphasizing that U.S. policy prioritizes American interests. Taiwan's government firmly rejected Beijing's sovereignty claims, asserting that only its people can determine their future. Trump's campaign has included demands for Taiwan to pay for its protection and threats of tariffs against China if it acts against the island.
Shares in Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. surged 8.8% on Tuesday, marking a 324% increase over five weeks and adding over $7.9 billion in value. This rally reflects market sentiment regarding Donald Trump's chances in the upcoming election, with betting markets giving him a two-to-one chance despite a tight race against Kamala Harris.
As the U.S. presidential election approaches, European leaders express concern over its potential impact on the Ukraine war and NATO. Many fear a Trump victory could destabilize transatlantic relations and embolden Russia, while a Harris win is expected to maintain support for Ukraine. Amidst these uncertainties, Europe is implementing measures to cushion Ukraine from possible U.S. aid cuts, including a $50 billion G7 loan to sustain military support.
Elon Musk and other allies of Donald Trump acknowledge that the former president's tariff plans could lead to short-term economic challenges, including higher consumer prices. They argue, however, that these policies may yield long-term benefits, such as increased wages. Critics, including Vice President Kamala Harris, label the tariffs as a "Trump sales tax," while Trump’s campaign deflects concerns by blaming the opposition for economic issues.
UBS analysts warn that proposed steep tariffs by Trump on Chinese goods could significantly impact the earnings of retailers like Best Buy, Five Below, and Wayfair. If these companies absorb just 5% of the increased costs, Five Below could see a 15% earnings drop, Best Buy 26%, and Wayfair over 40%. However, historical trends suggest retailers often adapt, potentially mitigating the impact as the situation evolves.
Kamala Harris
People
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